I’ve been saying privately for a year now that Virginia is looking at a having a Republican governor in 2013. Yesterday’s release of a poll showing Barack Obama ahead of all of the Republican candidates polled just adds a little more fuel to it.
Recall this from an earlier post:
| 1976 – Jimmy Carter (D) | 1977 – John Dalton (R) |
| 1980 – Ronald Reagan (R) | 1981 – Chuck Robb (D) |
| 1984 – Ronald Reagan (R) | 1985 – Gerry Baliles (D) |
| 1988 – George H.W. Bush (R) | 1989 – Doug Wilder (D) |
| 1992 – Bill Clinton (D) | 1993 – George Allen (R) |
| 1996 – Bill Clinton (D) | 1997 – Jim Gilmore (R) |
| 2000 – George W. Bush (R) | 2001 – Mark Warner (D) |
| 2004 – George W. Bush (R) | 2005 – Tim Kaine (D) |
| 2008 – Barack Obama (D) | 2009 – Bob McDonnell (R) |
Some of you were perfectly happy to have a Democratic president and a Republican governor; I was not. The price was too high, a price we are going to be paying for ten years. All of the eyes on redistricting now are not going to change what’s coming next spring: Republicans drawing House of Delegates districts and Congressional districts to their advantage. And due to the timing, expect a lot of races next fall – when all 140 seats in the legislature are up for re-election – to end up being uncontested.
I believe President Obama is well positioned to be re-elected in 2012, despite the changing electoral map. Somebody said, “As goes Virginia, so goes the nation.” Well, he’s leading in Virginia.
So get used to saying President Obama and Governor Bolling. (I’m still not convinced AG Ken Cuccinelli will give up his bully pulpit to challenge Bolling for the nomination.)
And Virginia Democrats need to be preparing now for 2017. Personally, I’d like to see Tom Perriello run that year, but I don’t know what he can do in the meantime to stay involved.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
The uncontested races part is especially frustrating. People who are seriously thinking about running next year should be out there now, talking to party people and community leaders, getting their names known and lining up support. They should also be setting up fundraising committees; they can call them exploratory if they want. Anyone who waits until the lines are drawn to get started has already lost.
Agreed.
Mr. Obama is looking like a one hit wonder.
Lots of Virginians hope that Jim Webb will run for President in 2012.
How about, President Jim Webb and Governor Ward Armstrong?
Now you’re doing comedy?
I’d just like to know who those “lots” are. 😉
As far as I’m aware, most Virginians aren’t even clear if Jim Webb’s really interested in one statewide race in 2012. Nevermind 50 of ’em.
Put me in KC’s camp for 2013 if he goes for it…though I’m not sure he will, either.
And I’m also not completely convinced that Obama won’t decline to run again, or won’t get primaried.
Obama is running and he won’t be primaried. Me saying that probably won’t convince you but it doesn’t make it any less true.
Your Obama prediction depends on the presence of a primary. Depending on the first six months of the GOP House, I could see Obama getting primaried from the left. And I always tell people, in modern politics, the easiest way to tell if an incumbent will be re-elected President is if they are primaried. Starting in 68…Johnson primaried….76 Ford primaried….80 Carter primaried….92 Bush primaried…..all lost. Nixon in 72 is kind of odd in that he only faced one primary and destroyed his opponent who wasn’t even serious. Reagan had no challenger in 84, Clinton had none in 96 and Bush had none in 04…no primaries = incumbent victory.
As I said above, I don’t believe he will be primaried. It’s been nearly 20 years since a president was primaried. Politicians are less risk averse these days.
There won’t be a Democratic presidential primary opponent in 2012.
But I’m not so sure Bolling will be the GOP nominee for governor in 2013. Even if Cuccinelli doesn’t challenge him, somebody else (Marshall? One of the Congressmen?) might. He’s just too vulnerable-looking an incumbent to walk into the gubernatorial nomination.
Cuccinelli and Bolling are in the preliminary sparring stage already. If Cuccinelli can get their party to adopt a nominating convention instead of a primary, I think he’s definitely in.
As far as a primary challenge to Obama, I wouldn’t be so sure. Heath Shuler may feel he needs to show off his quarterbacking talents in another theater.
Heath Shuler? That was a joke, right?
Heath Shulcer could not get 5% of the vote in N.H. or Iowa. That wouldn’t really be a challenge. A challenge would be a sitting U.S. Senator, or governor or Hilary Clinton, none of those is gong to happen.
I agree.
Wow, did I spell anything in that comment right?
It’s been a long day.
For you & me both 😦
Vivian hate to disagree with you but I believe tha we will win the governship back in 2013 and I am almost certain based on presidential turnout that Obama will easily be re-elected. The repugs simply do not know how to stay away fro the social stuff and concentrate on the economics.
I’ll take that bet.