Now that Phil Kellam has removed himself from contention, the Democratic nomination appears to be wide open. Or is it? The names I’ve heard floating around over the past weeks:
- David Ashe
- Henry Light
- Jody Wagner
I’m not sure that Ashe is up for another run, particularly given the DCCC’s response in 2004. Light is a newcomer and would have a hard time, especially given the size of his loss to Joannou.
That leaves Jody Wagner. Wagner ran against former seat holder Ed Schrock in 2000, losing by just 4%. On paper, Wagner looks like a tremendous candidate.
My guess is that we won’t know until after November’s elections who the Democratic candidate (or candidates) might be. So someone else could emerge. Any ideas who?
(I guess the WordPress autoposting thingee ain’t working today 😦 I set this up to post this morning.)
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
My vote goes to Jody Wagner. She would be an excellent candidate.
Henry Light is the way to go. Fiscally conservative enough to pick up Republican leaners, but a true Democrat on social issues. He is the best fit for the district. Jody loses some points against Thelma because she doesn’t get the crossover votes from women. Henry was a Navy Seal, for heaven’s sake. If Ashe can’t do it, Henry can pick up the security-minded Republicans who hate Thelma. He’ll raise twice as much money as Phil did. Although he lost to Johnny, he now has the campaign experience and foresight not to take too much credence into the consultants (like Phil did).
Plus Henry has strong support from Mark Warner and Paul Fraim to boot.
For those unaware about Henry:
After completion of training, he was assigned to UDT 21 (now SEAL Team 4) and rose to Officer in Charge of the Second Platoon of UDT 21 in Little Creek.
Henry left the Underwater Demolition Teams to attend law school at the University of Virginia and received his law degree in 1969.
He served in a variety of roles in the company’s Law Department before becoming Chief Legal Officer in 2002. He retired in March 2005 after 32 years of service at Norfolk Southern. He became affiliated of counsel with the Norfolk law firm of Crenshaw, Ware and Martin in January 2006.
He currently serves on the Boards of Norfolk State University, the Chrysler Museum and the American Red Cross of South Hampton Roads. He also serves on the boards of and is past Board Chair of Hampton Roads public broadcasting station WHRO and past President of the Virginia Zoological Society. He serves on the vestry of Christ and Saint Luke’s Episcopal Church in Norfolk. He is a member of the Virginia State Bar, the Virginia Bar Association, and the Norfolk and Portsmouth Bar Association.
Vivian im sure you are aware that Jody ran in the old district, that included junks of ghent. Jody would be killed by Thelma.
It’s nice that Geoff is such a fan of Light, and while I really do respect that, Light was a horrible candidate. His speaking style on the stump was wooden, he seemed very awkward when it came to defining the details of the issues and he never gave a compelling reason why he was running or why to vote for him. His whole campaign centered around knowing Mark Warner. At one of the forums where I saw him, if you had taken the words “Mark Warner” out of his vocabulary, he wouldn’t have needed to open his mouth. After a while, it became obvious he really had nothing to stand on other than he was a protest vote against Johnny, and as a result, Johnny wiped the floor with him.
Reeling off his resume does nothing to show how well he would do as a candidate. By contrast, Thelma didn’t even graduate from hight school. And Kellam had the support of Mark Warner and Paul Fraim.
Towards the end, it was obvious to many — at least listening to the word on the street leading up to the primary — that Light was mainly a candidate put up by the Larchmont crowd and Warner to go after Joannou. Didn’t work then, won’t work next year.
And Jody’s resume and political experience is at least as good as Light — perhaps better. And SHE has the support of Warner and Fraim.
Instead, how about this one? IF . . . . IF . . . .Joe Bouchard doesn’t win in November (I think he will), wouldn’t HE be a great candidate? Talk about a resume and a knowledge of the issues . . . ANd a former Commander at the Naval Base. He would tower over Thelma AND Light together.
A couple of dumb outsider questions:
1) Could the DCCC make it up to Ashe? Perhaps the DNC could take an interest? I didn’t pay close close attention to his race, but I Ashe did strike me as great candidate (from here) and I sent a few dollars his way. I do know the general outlines of what happened (or didn’t) with the national org, but, well . . things are different now. Is it worth exploring? and
2) Isn’t it a good thing that Kelllam is out? I understand the family dynasty thing, but my impression (again, as a complete outsider) was of a guy that couldn’t be bothered to earn his votes. We’ll be facing some pretty desperate folks on the GOP side, and I can’t imagine that it’ll do the Dems any good to send up lazy candidates.
Geoff – we all get it: you like Henry.;)
Bullwinkle – Wagner’s resume is strong plus she has the experience of running for Congress before. That alone is valuable, because running for Congress ain’t nothing like running for delegate.
And while I really like Bouchard, truth be told it’s going to be a tough sell. If he wins, he’s out of the race. If he loses, well – he’s in the same boat as Light.
At this point, I can’t see anyone any better than Wagner. Check out this article. Maybe we need to have the Governor give her son another call 🙂
I think Wagner is the best bet right now…Like it’s been said – she’s run before, she’s a few years wiser and the district is for the takin.
I think Ashe would get the support he lacked in 04 – the DCCC wants this seat and they made a mistake in 04 by playing too late
From what I hear, Ashe is not at all interested. Jody is gunning for LG or AG. Bouchard cannot raise any money. So that leaves Henry Light in my opinion. Sometimes an outsider to politics can really shake things up. Let me know what you think.
I think this the comments are all great, who ever comes out on top will be stonger for it, let he fight start.
Jody did run in the old district before it was redrawn to more-heavily favor a conservative, that’s true. However, the district has always include Virginia Beach in its entirity, which is the population center of the district, and the numbers have been moderating in the Beach for several cycles. Consider that in 2001, even after Jim Gilmore’s horrible administration, Mark Warner still lost the Beach by around 6,000 votes. In his LG run, Tim Kaine lost the beach by 10,000 votes. Fast forward to 2005, and Tim Kaine won Virginia Beach by a slender margin. Allen also beat incumbent Robb in the Beach in 2000 by about 11,000 votes, but Webb closed that margin to around 7,000 last year.
And considering Webb had practically no paid staff in Virginia Beach last year, I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to say he underperformed dramatically in Virginia Beach. If he’d had a decent field team of his own in Virginia Beach like Kaine or Kellam (or five more Susan Mariners with their Jim Webb War Wagons), he statisically could have (perhaps should have) drawn about even.
The point is this: a solid, moderate democrat with strong business credentials who is strong on the issues, backed by a well-organized operation, can be competitive in Virginia Beach. Which isn’t to say that either Henry or Jody is better qualified, it’s simply to say that it’s a mistake to think that the new district isn’t competitive for Jody. She couldn’t have run in 2002, certainly, but the conservative leanings in the new district have eroded considerably.
I agree with you, Anonymous. Its just that I have received very good intelligence that Jody is running state-wide.
Duelling Anonymouses – can’t you guys (or gals) pick a handle? 😉
I was here first. :p
Btw, I’ve heard the same conjecture about Jody’s statewide run for office, but it’s mostly from people who *want* Jody to run to represent Hampton Roads on the statewide democratic ticket. The fact that nobody knows if she’s running for AG or LG is a pretty good sign to me that it’s not actually “intelligence” as much as “optimistic guesswork” for the time being.
Then again, I have no reason to believe Jody’s running for any office at all, I simply want her to, so I’m indulging in a little optimistic guesswork, myself. 🙂