Now that Phil Kellam has removed himself from contention, the Democratic nomination appears to be wide open. Or is it? The names I’ve heard floating around over the past weeks:
- David Ashe
- Henry Light
- Jody Wagner
I’m not sure that Ashe is up for another run, particularly given the DCCC’s response in 2004. Light is a newcomer and would have a hard time, especially given the size of his loss to Joannou.
That leaves Jody Wagner. Wagner ran against former seat holder Ed Schrock in 2000, losing by just 4%. On paper, Wagner looks like a tremendous candidate.
My guess is that we won’t know until after November’s elections who the Democratic candidate (or candidates) might be. So someone else could emerge. Any ideas who?
(I guess the WordPress autoposting thingee ain’t working today 😦 I set this up to post this morning.)
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
david ashe is a great candidate.
JODY WAGNER FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL !
JODY WAGNER FOR LEUITENANT GOVERNOR !
First of all I think it should be Jody Wagner but do not feel that she will jump into that race. Henry Light has many problems regardless of his military career, one being that he led the fight at Norfolk Southern to deny compensation to asbestos victims. This was the reason Joannou received early labor endorsement along with his voting record. So if you pick Henry Light it would probably mean that hundreds of volunteers from labor would be not be used for the race. David Ashe is a great choice however I have no idea if he would leave his current job. So my choice is Jody Wagner, and my heart is David Ashe. Anyone else out there that is credible please step up to the plate.
Gene,
Henry didnt deny compensation to workers, he just tried to keep it reasonable and limit how much Williard Moody could win for his personal piggy bank. Furthermore no one who is in tight with labor stands a chance in hell of winning the second, its way to right wing conservative, wealthy people. The nominee whoever it may be needs to get the chamber of commerce to stay out or endorse the democrat. Being the puppet for unions isnt going to do that. I am personally a strong supporter of unions, my grandfather spent 31 years at the ford plant and has been a lifelong member of the UAW. That being said, it doesn’t change the fact that the district is an upper white collar district. Henry Light is not in favor of right to work laws. You cant complain about something that happened years ago, the aspestos thing was based on the manipulation of portsmouth power players who were frankly exploiting the situation to make money for themselves.
Im thinking lets just go with Vivian. I am totally down for that.
Sorry Anon . . . it’s not an “upper white collar district.” It has plenty of precincts that are like that, but it has just as many, if not more, that are not. Do you think the Eastern Shore is “uwc?” How about the Hampton precincts or Ocean View? Green Run? Pungo?
Also, you can get union support — and be “tight with labor” and win without being a “puppet for unions.” Ask Mark Warner, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb. And while some of the asbestos cases may have been years ago, ask anyone who has worked in political campaigns — you will hear about it regardless of when you were involved. If it happened anytime from your conception to Election Day, odds are good that someone is looking into it and you will hear about it.
While you may be right that some people were trying to “exploit the situation to make money,” don’t kid yourself — Norfolk-Southern was in that same line at times.
As far as Vivian being the candidate, does that mean pomgranite martinis for everyone on Election Night?
Labor support is good, but not crucial. All the field work done these days is by kids anyway. On the other side of the coin, I don’t think a right leaning independent is going to not vote for someone because labor supports them.
Anyway…we still have to wait and see what’s going on with Mark Warner. If he decides to run for Governor again, everyone takes a step down. Moran and Deeds will obviously try to fill the Atty Gen and Lt. Gov spots.
So we still have no idea what Jody Wagner can or would do. Anyone want to give her a phone call?
Let me put this to bed now: I ain’t running 🙂
Sean’s right about Warner. Moran and Deeds have raised too much money and put in too much face time around Virginia to quit if he decides to run for Governor again, they’ll just slide down on the ticket. I think he’s understating the value of labor, and incidentally in answer to an earlier comment it is indeed a mistake to think that just because the district isn’t dotted with factories that there aren’t a lot of union members. There are unions for auto workers and steel workers, but there are also unions for teachers and government employees.
I’m strongly considering calling Jody but right now it’s only to ask for some popcorn. I’ve been jonesing for it all day. 🙂
So, what makes you all think that the teachers and gov. employees won’t support Henry? I think they would.
Actually in regaurds to a comment earlier, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb, got less then 50% in the second. Heres the deal I dont care about the five union households left in the district. The overall dynamic of the district is upper middle class white people, plus they are the swing vote. This district kinda reminds me of Melissa Bean’s district in Illiniois where no one thought a democrat could win, and she managed to win, without labor support, but with business support.
So you’re saying that Henry Light would be a better candidate because he doesn’t care about union members who live in the district? I’m a little bit lost. Wouldn’t the smart thing be to reach out to local labor while maintaining solid business credentials? The saying goes that politics is about addition, not subtraction.
Good point Anonymous (#1 or #2?) Writing off groups before you start makes no sense. It IS about addition, not subtraction.
The 2nd is too middle class for Light to be an appealing candidate. He’s a silk-stocking attorney who didn’t play well in a Portsmouth/Chesapeake primary. He’s not going to do much better in Hampton, Eastern Shore and middle class areas of Virginia Beach and Norfolk. And winning Larchmont won’t carry the day.
ok in case you all forgot, phil kellam was a huge redneck good ole boy, we tried that. Traditional democratic voters will vote against thelma, unless someone, like the unions, do something stupid to screw it up. My point is this, waving the banner for unions isnt going to help you. I have lived in the second all my life and have worked on numerous campaigns here. this goes to any candidate running, I think jody would be a great candidate, if shes not interested then Henry will be a great candidate. I have lived in two parts of Virginia Beach, and the people vote along the lines of fiscal issues, the chamber of commerce endorsement for Thelma killed phil, i was out there canvassing for phil and i heard about it everywhere phil needed to pick up points to win. The second has four areas where a democratic needs to outperform to win. GreatNeck, Kempsville, Princess Anne, and Westside of Norfolk. Those areas will vote for someone with pro-business credentials. Now whats the best two ways too piss off the chamber of commerce, be a trial lawyer or pro-union. Jody was a corporate lawyer, she would be a great candidate. I think henry is more personable and might come off as a more likeable alternative to thelma, where i could see jody being perceived as arrogaunt, just a thought, i still like her. but despite who the nominee is, you wont win without business support, and being the unions puppet is a sure way to get them against you really really fast. Lets remember the majority of this district is affluent whites, i dont care if you can name a few places that arent, the majority is, and thats what matters.
I too, worked the Kellam campaign, and there are three points here that just don’t add up: Kellam was a redneck, the district is predominantly affluent whites, and Jody is “perceived as arrogaunt,” (or “arrogant”). Let me quit chuckling and I’ll explain.
Kellam was not the perfect candidate, but calling him a redneck will bring a shit load of belly laughs from all those who know him. If he is a redneck, then Dubya must be a member of MENSA.
If anything, his friends pushed him to get away from the country club and get out and do more with the blue collar crowd. Anyone who has ever met Phil Kellam would never label him as a redneck. Please . . .that’s too much.
And if you travel the district and know it, there is no way you can say it is primarily affluent whites. Henry Light and the Larchmont crowd are not the center of the universe. Referring to the ENTIRE Eastern Shore, along with the rural county of Virginia Beach, the Green Run section of VB, Hampton, Ocean View, the Indian River section and a multitude of areas in the 2nd is more than “naming a FEW places.” THAT is where the VOTES ARE, and they do not give any proof that the 2nd is primarily affluent.
If that is the thinking, no wonder Light got his ass kicked. HE and Paul Fraim may live in an “affluent” section of the 2nd, but most people don’t. Ride through the 2nd and learn the area — it defies being labeled that. There is a world outside Larchmont.
And Jody may be considered “arrogant?” Sure . . . and Paris Hilton is a virgin. Have you ever met Jody? She is one of the most pleasant and engaging people you could want to meet. Maybe it was her “arrogaunce” that got her all those votes in 2000 and made the election so close.
This is particularly ironic when one of the most common labels I heard about Light during his race was “stuffed shirt.” And after hearing him at a couple of public forums, I know he doesn’t want to debate Jody — she will make sandwich meat out of him.
It’s nice that Geoff feels such loyalty to Henry Light and admires him. I mean that. But he shouldn’t let it cloud his judgement to where he promotes Light for a contest he is not equipped for. Sipping his Chardonnay at the drag races in Hampton or a pig-picking in Pungo or a fish fry on the Eastern Shore is not how he wants to campaign. Nice guy he might be, but his performance in the primary doesn’t give any evidence that he could handle a Congressional race. Thelma and the R’s will make fish cakes out of him.