Now that Phil Kellam has removed himself from contention, the Democratic nomination appears to be wide open. Or is it? The names I’ve heard floating around over the past weeks:
- David Ashe
- Henry Light
- Jody Wagner
I’m not sure that Ashe is up for another run, particularly given the DCCC’s response in 2004. Light is a newcomer and would have a hard time, especially given the size of his loss to Joannou.
That leaves Jody Wagner. Wagner ran against former seat holder Ed Schrock in 2000, losing by just 4%. On paper, Wagner looks like a tremendous candidate.
My guess is that we won’t know until after November’s elections who the Democratic candidate (or candidates) might be. So someone else could emerge. Any ideas who?
(I guess the WordPress autoposting thingee ain’t working today 😦 I set this up to post this morning.)
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
No, Jody isn’t arrogant: her husband is. I’ve met him, and he’s a big jerk.
As for Jody and 2000, she spent the last two months in negative mode. She made the election closer by bringing Schrock’s numbers down, but she wasn’t going to win that way.
Finally, I agree: Vivian would make a better candidate than any of them. 🙂 Too bad she doesn’t want to run.
It’s not a matter of want, HMR. It’s a small matter of, oh, say, two million dollars 😉
you know what run Jody again and lose, run David again and lose. Run the godfather and lose. Stop trying to make this district out to be more then it is, the weakeness lies with the PART of the district that is affluent, btw just to give you a little info. not that knowledge would be anything youre use to, the median income of this district is 6K higher then nationwide, for a total of 12% higher.
the point is try something new, if we were all as smart as we think we are phil would have won, its about having faith. Its time for a new strategy. And dont attack paul fraim ever again, the man is beloved in almost all of his city, rich, white, poor, black, hispanic, OV, West side, they all love him. We should take notes
“not that knowledge would be anything youre use to” . . . . Right.
I don’t advocate running Jody or David OR HENRY LIGHT. And James Brown is dead, so forget the “godfather.”
And just in case you slept through statistics class, median doesn’t mean majority. If five voters make $10,000 and one makes $50,000, regardless of your median income, five out of six voters you are trying to reach make less than $15,000. In elections you count noses, not checkbooks. So spouting numbers out of your political almanac doesn’t help you at all. Nice try.
And winning the 2nd Congressional district race is “about having faith???” Good luck with that one. Let’s get the word around on that one so one wastes their time raising $2 million.
And “the man (Paul Fraim) is beloved in almost of his city, rich, white, poor, black, hispanic, OV, West side, they all love him. We should take notes.”
Good God . . . who knew?? Paul Fraim is “beloved.” Make that . . . Paul Fraim is beloved by ALL — especially by the 6K higher crowd, along with the poor, black, Hispanic, OV, et al” (so much for the “primarily affluent whites”) — and Henry Light can get elected to Congress if he has “faith.” I think we know who knowledge is not “anything youre use to.”
Well, if nothing else, you’ve made Thelma relax and feel less stress.
Thanks for your comments. They speak for themselves, and I certainly feel much better.
Ok first of all the number of campaigns in which you were actually staff, im going to guess none, just a small hunch. I think you just drove around a few parts of the district and decided you were suddenly an expert. Try taking it from someone who has actually spent a considerable amount of time working for democratic candidates in the district. Last summer as i canvassed literally parts of all over the district i kept finding affluent voters who were concerned about fiscal issues, but I’m guessing I just imagined that. So heres a wild idea, instead of sitting in your moms basement writing on a blog about something you will never understand because clearly common sense is something you werent blessed with. Oh and who do you have in mind for the district? Wanna run phil again? And it wasnt about “faith” nice of you to take it out of context, nice smear there, sure you’re not a republican? Faith was implying that maybe its time to try a different strategy at winning the district then running a beach native candidate. But hey you lost three times with a beach candidate, what the hell fours an even number, why try anything new. I like the idea of anyone not from the Beach running, because frankly with the exception of phils family, no one in Virginia beach is actually from Virginia Beach originally. But im sure you’ll come up with some absurd arguement saying thats not true either. So here’s what ive gotten from you so far, no ideas, bashing anyone elses, no knowledge of the area or district, and suddenly you think youre an expert, holy shit, im blogging with Thelma Drake.
also in regaurds to your completely snide and immature remark about thelma relaxing, that actually would be a great asset, her not thinking she has a strong challenge. By the way if you ever decide you want to actually learn something, look up the election of Congresswoman Melissa Bean. Similar district, she had no election experience and took on a long-time incumbent and won.
I have to admit, I’m enjoying your responses. The sheer ignorance of them gives me more laughs than I deserve.
If you knew how many campaigns I have worked, not just in this state but others, you wouldn’t make such idiotic remarks. I was working campaigns and working on Capitol Hill before you even started wearing diapers. But because you “have spent considerable amount of time working for democratic candidates in the district,” like a lot of blowhards around here, you suddenly consider yourself an expert. Your low-grade comments suggest otherwise.
If common sense is required, you might as well give it up now. You started out on this blog with your lips sealed so tightly against Henry Light’s butt cheeks that you had to walk wherever he walked. Now you’re throwing a temper tantrum because NO ONE agrees with you about Light who was a horrible candidate.
In the meantime, you smear Phil Kellam, Jody Wagner and anyone who doesn’t agree with your high school attitude of: “I LOVE this candidate, so let’s run him regardless of whether he can win or not.”
There is so much about what you have written that is either jumbled or laughable. “Last summer I literally canvassed parts of all over the district. . . ” Well then, I guess that makes you the next James Carville.
Try actually doing something in a campaign. Sit in on strategy sessions. Talk to the press. Draft a campaign plan. Write a voter contact plan. Try fundraising when you need to raise $1 million. Go door-to-door with a candidate. Write a TV or radio script. Draft a speech that is due in 2 hours.
“Walking parts of all over the district” sounds exactly like someone who sits in their mommy’s basement and writes about something they have very little experience. We refer to them as “campaign weenies.” The fact that you threw a snit and whined JUST BECAUSE I and NO ONE else agreed with you about Henry Light being a candidate confirms that.
No one called you names. No one said you were stupid for thinking the way you do. But you got your panties in a twist and started slamming Kellam, Wagner, me and anyone else that you could mark up with your Crayola.
Keep “walking that district.” Keep slamming anyone who doesn’t agree with you. Keep bowing at the feet of Paul Fraim. Keep blogging from your mommy’s basement. And when it’t time to go to work, don’t forget your little hat and apron and smile when you ask the customer if they want fries with their order.
Okay, the two of you need to stop measuring your dicks. First of all, Geoff, I am inclined to agree with you about the electoral ramifications of who runs against Thelma. Bullwinkle, you actually didn’t respond to Geoff’s statements because they are actually insightful and correct, despite the lax attitude towards syntax, grammar, and punctuation. So, again, I would love to hear who Bullwinkle thinks can run, considering several factors about the district. I am very inclined to limit it to Jody and Henry.
Others:
Joe Bouchard (lotta respect for him but no business credentials and no fund-raising ability)
David Ashe (is in Iraq; furthermore, the same things apply to him as to Bouchard)
Paula Miller (would be a mouthpiece for Speaker Nancy; she is an absolute dunce)
There are others I presume; to be addressed in another post.
A. The candidate needs to raise at least 2 million dollars. Jody and Henry are the only ones who can do that.
B. The candidate needs to have great business credentials to appeal across the aisle. Jody and Henry both have that. They, and only they, will attract business support.
C. The candidate needs to have military experience. Henry has that.
D. The candidate needs electoral experience. Jody and Henry have that.
E. The candidate needs the absolute backing of Warner. Both have that.
F. They don’t need to care about labor support, because they will show up to vote anyways because it’s an election year.
There are other factors, of course. But those are the main ones. In conclusion, in a Presidential election year, we need a moderate Democrat, with great business credentials who can raise a ton of money. I am not worried about ticking off the far left, because they are going to show up anyone to vote for Hillary or Obama. Furthermore, the far right is going to show up and vote for Thelma and against Hillary regardless of who we run. So, my belief is this: The universe is right in the motherfucking middle. Any Democrat takes all registered Democrats, essentially. Phil got them all even though he was against gay marriage and gun control. So, that accounts for 45% approximately. So, the candidate will need 6 more points from somewhere. They aren’t going to come from Big Bubba down at Trailer Park West, nor from Joe Patriot who lives in Green Run. They are going to come from upper-middle and upper class whites who are growing sick of the war, want the Bush tax cuts, are overwhelming pro-choice and so on. That’s Jody’s or Henry’s universe . That’s where they need to kick ass electorally. I believe, that with the right message, staff, and so on, it can be done. If Warner is at the top of the ticket running for Senate, then whoever (Jody or Henry) needs his absolute backing and coordination. Now: I presume I have left things out, but I feel this is pretty comprehensive. I would work for either Jody or Henry. I know Jody from temple and she is a friend of the family. I worked for Henry’s campaign in Portsmouth briefly. I can honestly say they both have advantages and downsides. I would love to see Jody in Richmond in the Governor’s seat eventually, so I feel she would be best to run for AG or LG. Henry is as smart and independent-minded as people come; I can see him as a modern-day Owen Pickett. I think he would be great just as Jody would. Thus, I am torn. Let either one run and with great staff and messaging, Thelma will be scared shitless.
OK, guys. Clean up the language. I don’t mind the back and forth but keep it clean, ok?
I agree with almost all that you said. In an earlier post I said that I thought Joe Bouchard would be a great candidate. His biggest drawback is that to do so, he has to lose the race he is in and it’s pretty difficult to lose a race and turn around the next day and announce you are running for Congress.
I have GREAT respect for Jody and would support her if she ran. I know there are a lot of former Kellam supporters at the Beach who favor her. But I have been hearing for almost two years that she is interested more in statewide (AG) than in going to Washington.
I DID make suggestions in several earlier posts, and I did agree that their are real ramifications in who is chosen to run against Thelma (also in earlier posts) which is why however nice Light may be, he is not the guy to take on Thelma.
I also addressed his comments — the legitimate ones — several times. But his name-calling and repeating Light’s resume over and over gave me no reason to take some of his comments seriously.
I told him in an earlier post I respected his opinion and his passion, but we needed to select a candidate who could beat Thelma. That’s when he went on a tear, dismissing anyone who disagreed with him.
I’ve said enough about him and his comments. I’m done.
Excuse me for butting in, but I have 2 questions:
1) Is military experience that crucial? I mean, does Drake have any such background?
2) Isn’t Henry Light in his late 60s and, if so, would his age work against him?
Ray – you’re not butting in 🙂
I don’t think military experience is crucial. David Ashe had it – and it didn’t help. As for Henry’s age – I would think a handicap only from the issue of stamina. Campaigning for Congress is hard work.
I think you all missed my point, I’m assuming Jody wont run from everything ive heard from her friends. I’m saying who does that leave, no kellam , no ashe, no wagner. From there Henry is the best bet. As for military experience its not just that you need more. henry has military experience and business experience, plus friends with money. Maybe between the two he can win. And let me remind you all, this all started because my first nominee, Vivian, wont run. I almost had signs ready for that one.
and yes henrys age would kinda be an issue, he is very active for his age, the man did canvass four hours every night on the last campaign. I think henry can play up the public service card, hes a business man, former naval seal, and community activist. kinda like thomas jefferson, average citizen elected type thing.