By Steve Vaughan
Senator Jim Webb announced Wednesday that he won’t seek a second term in 2012.
The announcement wasn’t much of a surprise. He only raised $12,000 in campaign contributions in the fourth quarter of 2010 and he’d seemed for months to be vacillating on the decision to run or not run.
I’m going to miss him.
I always like Webb because he never quite fit the mold of your typical modern politician. Unlike the guy he beat in 2006, George Allen, or his Democratic colleague from Virginia, Mark Warner, Webb was never the glib, smiling, backslapping type who generally prospers in retail politics.
Webb has the hard eyes of a former Marine combat veteran, a face like a clenched fist and the temper that so often accompanies the red hair he inherited from the Scot-Irish ancestors he’s so proud of.
(I’m married to a redhead. Trust me on this.)
He’s not himself a fool and doesn’t suffer fools gladly.
And, unlike most of our current crop of political “leaders,” Webb has never found it necessary to check which way the political winds are blowing before deciding what he thinks about an issue. Once he decides, he’s not shy about saying just what he thinks.
He’s as blunt as a hammer.
A former Republican, Webb managed to tick off members of both parties on an equal opportunity basis. But, despite that, he managed to put up a pretty solid record of accomplishment for a first-term senator. He was the primary author of a new G.I. Bill that was a more significant legislative accomplishment than Allen managed in six years in the seat or that Democrat Chuck Robb saw in the 12 years before that.
Webb’s political views were more complex than party labels can encompass.
Economically, Webb was a populist, understanding that over the last 30 years this country has undergone a great redistribution of wealth from the bottom up, and that the top 20% of American earners were doing well at the expense of the bottom 80%. He worried about the disappearance of the middle class.
Webb was a warrior who campaigned against what he thought of as foolish war in Iraq.
He also came out for prison reform, hardly a politically popular cause, noting the disconnect between the cradle of liberty having one of the highest imprisonment rates in the world.
He upset Democrats by calling for a re-thinking of affirmative action programs, which he believed had outlived their usefulness and grown to favor groups who’d never experienced systematic discrimination. He suggested that class, rather than race or ethnic background, might be a more suitable basis for such programs.
Webb seemed to enjoy being a U.S. Senator more than he enjoyed running for office. I suspect that it was the prospect of another campaign that led him to bow out of public life. Running for office in the United States is essentially a phony endeavor. And, whatever else was said about Jim Webb, no one ever accused him of being a phony.
His withdrawal from the arena will likely have a huge effect, not only on the Democratic race to succeed him, but the contest for the Republican nomination as well.
No one benefits from Webb’s announcement more than Allen.
Allen was facing a tough road to the GOP nomination. Tea Party activist Jamie Radke has already announced her candidacy. Other candidates somehow seen to be to the right of Allen were – including Prince William Board of Supervisors Chair Corey Stewart and conservative gadfly Del. Bob Marshall – were expected to jump into the race.
But Webb’s announcement, creating an open seat, has likely made Virginia Republicans less likely to gamble in 2012. They are more likely to go with the safe choice, which on the basis of name recognition and proven fundraising ability alone, is obviously Allen.
And, to be fair, some of the Tea Party objections to Allen seem illogical. He’s apparently being blamed for going along with George W. Bush’s bloated budgets and spending sprees. On that logic, the Tea Party should be opposing nearly every Republican who served in Congress under Bush. With the exception of Rep. Ron Paul, none of them were notable for their objections to the Bush agenda.
Some Republicans see Allen as “damaged goods.” They are on safer ground in opposing him.
While everyone remembers the “macaca” incident, where Allen directed an obscure racial slur at a “tracker” employed by the Webb campaign, that’s not the whole story. In the wake of that incident a flood of stories came out about Allen’s love for the Confederate flag (even though he hails from California), the noose that used to hang in his a law office and his proclivity for using the “n word.” That’s the candidate you want on the ballot in a year when Barack Obama is running for re-election in a state which the U.S. Census shows has an increasingly diverse population?
Nonetheless, I think Webb’s announcement moved the odds against anyone snatching the GOP nomination away from Allen to from long to staggering.
Anyone who tries, and anyone who chooses to run against him in the general election, should be prepared for a tough nasty fight. Allen and his “A Team” always play hardball. They play it dirty and they play it well. Ask Mary Sue Terry or Chuck Robb.
George Allen is, and always has been, a bully. That’s what “macaca” was all about really, he was trying to intimidate that kid and make him feel scared in front of a group of Allen supporters. By the way, you don’t need to take my word for this, you can read his sister’s book.
That made it somehow fitting that Jim Webb, the guy all bullies eventually run into who can’t be intimidated, ended his political career which close Allen aides were once convinced would end in the Oval Office.
On the Democratic side, the natural first though once Webb dropped out, was former governor and current Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine. Temperamentally, Kaine is a better fit for the Senate than Webb or Allen … or Warner, for that matter. There’s some question if he’s interested. A poll taken in November, once people began to speculate that Webb wasn’t going to run, showed Kaine with leading Allen, 50-44, a better performance than Webb. That doesn’t mean much. Terry once led Allen by 35 points in their gubernatorial race only to be swamped.
If Allen is the Republican’s “safe” choice, Kaine is the Democrat’s.
Former 5th District Rep. Tom Perriello seems to be the choice of the party’s progressive wing. Going from ousted freshman congressman to U.S. Senator seems like a reach. But many of the same people who “drafted” Webb in 2006 are boosting Perriello.
Other names raised on the Democratic side are former gubernatorial contender Terry McAuliffe, former 9th District Rep. Rick Boucher, 3rd District Rep. Bobby Scott and State Senator Donald McEachin, who lost in an attorney general bid in 2001. McAuliffe would likely face the same “carpetbagger” issues he did in 2009, although he could probably raise more money than even Allen. After the Creigh Deeds fiasco in 2009, I don’t see state Democrats being willing to give another conservative Democrat from the western end of the state, like Boucher, a change on the statewide ticket any time soon. Scott would likely be a formidable opponent, if he were willing to give up a safe-for-life House seat and gamble for the Senate. I worked as McEachin’s press secretary when he ran in 2001. His dream has never been to be in the U.S. Senate. It’s to some day be governor of Virginia. He is in better position to run statewide now than he was in 2001.
Any of the Democrats mentioned so far, could beat Allen. But it’s going to be a tougher fight than it would have been in Webb had chosen to run again.
Cross posted at Virginia Pundit.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
I’d have to disagree that Webb leaving makes it easier for Allen to win the nomination. Radtke and anyone else, with the exception of Bert Mizusawa, would have had to overcome to massive resume deficit were they facing Webb.
I have often criticized people supporting Radtke because she has no military experience and really nothing that could have stacked up against Webb’s bona fides. Now with Webb out of the race, the question revolves more around policy and personality than background and life experience.
Without knowing who they will be running against, voters will be left to chose solely based on one side of the equation. This is a huge opening for Radtke should she take advantage of it properly and it all but destroyed Bert’s chances of making a successful run.
I also think that Perriello would be the best choice for the Democrats to nominate. His skills on the campaign trail are unmatched and I know quite a few hard core conservatives and even some Libertarian/Ron Paul types that have a great deal of respect for him. Anyone with balls enough to attend Tea Party meetings and defend votes for the health care bill is fine by me. He could turn out Nova and other Democratic heavy areas by huge margins and if he does as well as he did in the 5th in the Conservative parts, it could be a bad election day for the GOP.
Have to say that Tim Kaine as a candidate never entered my mind until others started saying his name. My first thought was Tom Perriello.
Kaine may be a safe choice, but I don’t think he is necessarily the best choice. I think Dems need the energy that Perriello brings to the table. His populist stances make him an easy candidate to support.
Unless the Republicans end up with four or five candidates for their nomination, I don’t think Allen is a shoe-in. So I don’t know that the Webb announcement benefits him – unless it means more are emboldened to run. If Allen faces multiple opponents, I think he wins the nomination easily. If, on the other hand, he only faces one, it’s going to be much harder for him to win. Radtke is already garnering national support. If she continues, Allen would be crazy to take her lightly.
Agreed on Perriello.
I agree that Virginia Dems need an energetic candidate, and Periello does fit that bill. Kaine does, too, though; I’ve seen him a lot on the trail over the past several years, and he’s always the quintessential happy warrior when he’s campaigning for something or someone. I think either man has the work ethic necessary to run for an open seat.
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One thing that struck me about George Allen’s announcement video is that he’s apparently planning to run on the same platform as the 2010 midterms — repeal HCR, clean coal, deficit spending . Thinking that he can win next year’s election on last year’s platform has always been George Allen’s biggest failing as a politician. After the 2004 Presidential elections, Allen tried to position himself as the philosophical heir (heh) to George W. Bush because that platform was just so successful and popular that year. Trouble for him was that the electorate decided the subsequent two Federal elections on a completely different set of criteria. I expect that his perpetual enthusiasm to stay two years behind the curve is going to handicap him again…but I also wonder if a Periello/Allen head-to-head match-up wouldn’t end up being the only way Allen could successfully get HCR back on the agenda.
Or maybe not. I don’t know, I’m interested to see how things shake out.
Agree that Kaine has energy but I’m not thinking of the candidate’s energy as much as the ability to energize others. who can best close the enthusiasm gap is what I’m looking at. Of course, this is probably a moot point, because the PTB are going to make the decision, not me.
Eh, I think either Democrat can get people to volunteer and come out to the polls. I fully expect there to be less enthusiasm around Tim Kaine among bloggers, many of whom are still holding their torches and pitchforks after he endorsed Gerry Connolly over Leslie Byrne, but I wouldn’t begin to assume that attitude was reflected among voters at large without some recent polling numbers.
I’d be happy with either guy, though. Which is really a beneficent attitude to take on the matter because I’m sure you’re right. The White House has great relations with both men, and if they have a preference they’ll intercede before a primary.
I disagree with virtually everything you say, but it’s mostly opinion, and you’re certainly entitled to be wrong.
But I’m pretty sure Webb was NEVER a Republican. Sure: he served in a GOP Administration (Reagan’s).
He supported Allen against Chuck Robb in 2000. He seemed to think he was switching parties when he announced as a Dem in 2006.
I’ve got Republican friends who actually remember him as a Republican and who were upset when he changed parties.
Since he was a Midshipman, Jim Webb has been the definition of the shortest distance between two points and one who freely spoke his mind. It was a surprise that he ran for office since sausage making doesn’t fit his personality particularly well, and it’s a disappointment that he is resigning since he’s been an effective Senator for the Commwealth’s citizens.
Max, disagree with you on this sinking GEN Mizusawa’s chances.
Of the Republican contenders-and the Democratic names being thrown around-none of them match Mizusawa’s resume, background, and knowledge of the military. It may not be the biggest national issue, but defense/national security policy matters a LOT here in Virginia. The Commonwealth’s seat on SASC wasn’t just a handout; there’s a reason why we’ve got it. I’m not particularly keen on a newcomer (someone who hasn’t worked with the military or has a background in national security) holding our spot there, ESPECIALLY with BRAC coming up again in 2015.
I don’t disagree at all, the thing is, knowing Bert’s personality and what he’s been up to, he is likely taking this as a sign that maybe he shouldn’t run after all.
He waffled back and forth forever before jumping in for real in the 2nd, he is taking the exact same approach now. Should he decide to run, I agree, he is head and shoulders above everyone, but I think Webb not running is negatively impacting his decision making process.
I could be and hopefully am wrong on this one though.
Vivian,
I think it increases the chances that Allen is the GOP nominee because it’s now an open seat and that will make them less likely to take a chance. He’s the safe choice. He’s got a track record. They know he’ll raise money and run hard.
If Kaine were the Dem nominee, he might not fare as well against Allen as polls are showing. That race would invite a comparison of their records as governor and — while some might argue the value of his achievements — there’s not any doubt that Allen had MORE achievements as governor than Kaine – parole reform, welfare reform, parental notification. Kaine was hampered by budget problems during his years as governor.
Still disagree on Allen. Open seat or not – in my mind, it comes down to how many get in the primary. He might get all the endorsements of people who think he is a safe choice, but that doesn’t necessarily transfer into votes.
What worries me about Kaine is two things: his ability to close the enthusiasm gap and the nationalization of the election.