9/15/11 Financial reports – local races

Yesterday was the filing deadline for campaign finance disclosure reports for candidates on the ballot in November. The data below covers the period August 11 to August 31 and was taken from the Virginia Public Access Project, better known as VPAP. As of this writing, the information on VPAP is just the raw data from the State Board of Elections filings. Value-added data is to be available later.

Here’s what the records show for local races (note: * indicates incumbent):

Senate

1st (leans D)
John Miller (D)* – raised $56,905, on hand $122,462
Mickey Chohany (R) – raised $37,585, on hand $60,277 (includes $30,000 in loans)

Although the filing period was short, it is interesting to note that cash donation for Miller ($36,985) came from 69 donors while cash donations for Chohany ($13,719) came from only 37 donors.  Looks like the Governor’s $50K hasn’t made a difference in this race.

2nd (solid D)
Mamie Locke (D)* – raised $5,850, on hand $45,766
Thomas Harmon IV (R) – raised $10,150 including $2,000 in loans, on hand $612 (loans not repaid)

Unless something major happens, this will not be a competitive race.

3rd (solid R)
Tommy Norment (R)* won the 8/23 primary and faces no opposition in the general election.

6th (leans D)
Ralph Northam (D)* – raised $65,060, on hand $286,016
Ben Loyola (R) – raised $13,685, on hand $71,024 (includes $51,400 in loans)

Like the 1st, the number of donors in this race is interesting: Northam’s cash donations ($57,343) came from 93 donors while Loyola’s cash donations ($13,685) came from 39 donors.  The governor has not put any money in this race yet. And I still haven’t seen reported on Loyola’s financials the in-kind donation by the RPV of the poll they did for him.

House of Delegates

21st (leans R)
Ron Villanueva (R)* – raised $38,475, on hand $61,377 (includes $5,000 in loans)
Adrianne Bennett (D) – raised $21,164, on hand $18,536

Like most first time candidates, Bennett’s burn rate is too high. This race has the potential to be competitive but not if she continues to spend more than she’s taking in.

64th (leans R)
Bill Barlow (D)* – raised $18,917, on hand $51,684
Richard Morris (R) – raised $17,495, on hand $14,611 (numbers from the SBE website)

If this continues, I’ll have to update my ranking.

90th (solid D)
Algie Howell (D)* won the 8/23 primary and faces no opposition in the general election.

93rd (barely leans D)
Robin Abbott (D)* – raised $32,251, on hand $56,066
Mike Watson (R) – raised $26,766 including loans of $2,047, on hand $46,801 (includes $12,047 in loans)

Abbott’s cash donations ($19,335) came from 68 donors while Watson’s cash donations ($8,730) came from 27 donors. Noncash contributions from the RPV are the only thing keeping this close.

94th (leans R)
Gary West (D) – raised $1,785, on hand $1,785
David Yancey (R) – raised $24,545, on hand $14,191

This is an open seat, made available because of the retirement of Glenn Oder, so both candidates had a late start. The district was made slightly more Republican after redistricting, going from a 60.4% McDonnell district to 61.5%. However, Obama edged McCain in this district, 50% to 49%, so it is not completely unwinnable for a Democrat. The key will be West’s ability to raise money. His donations, all cash, came from 9 donors while Yancey’s cash donations ($16,745) came from 22 donors, including himself. If Yancey has already tapped out his large donors and West steps up, this could be a competitive race. As of this writing, though, it leans Republican.

95th (solid D)
Mayme BaCote (D)* – raised $2,929, on hand $11,218
Glenn McGuire (Libertarian) – raised $115, on hand $50

McGuire is a late entry to challenge BaCote. This district actually became more Republican as the result of redistricting. But don’t get excited: the district went from 32.7% McDonnell to 34%, making it a solid Democratic district. The only reason I even bothered to look at the numbers was because I ran into Del. BaCote at Rep. Scott’s Labor Day event. Unless McGuire seriously steps up his fundraising, this race will not be competitive.

For the first time in a long time, all of the financial reports are available at the time I’m writing this post. Kudos to the candidates for getting their reports done on time.

If you want an explanation of my rankings, see this post.

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10 thoughts on “9/15/11 Financial reports – local races

  1. Miller’s problem is that Norment has more than $350K on hand and has vowed to do whatever it takes to win that seat. Some of that money could go to help Watson as well as Chohany.

  2. Stating the odvious. Senate District 1 is the one to watch. Miller is stronger then his party in that district. I still think Barlow wins in the 64th very competative though.

  3. Barlow’s fate will depend on what kind of margin he can get out of Isle of Wight. His electoral coalition has always depended on his personal popularity there. Williamsburg/JCC getting moved out of the district actually helped him, because he lost that part of the district by 380 votes in ’09. The big problem for him is that they added Prince George, which is probably going to go heavily for Morris. On the other hand, I don’t know if Morris can cut into Barlow’s margin in Isle of Wight the way Stan Clark did. I think it’s very much a tossup.

    As for the 6th Senate district, I think Loyola’s on his way to getting embarrassed by Northam. If he’s not getting money from McDonnell, when even Bill Carrico in the safe-R 40th got a check, that doesn’t speak much of the Republicans’ confidence in his chances.

  4. Good points on the 64th.

    As for the 6th – Johnny, I think you’re on to something. I had heard differently early in the race about McDonnell putting money into the race. While it still may happen, I’ve now heard the Rs are pretty much writing off that race. If that’s the case, the effort (at least in HR) will be towards Miller in the 1st.

    But if Miller is stronger than the party in the 1st, an argument I don’t disagree with, and the district was made more Democratic in redistricting, then it’s not going to be much of a race to watch 😉

  5. I wonder what races GOP will put money in to get to the goal of the magic 21 they keep harping on? Even 20 gives them limited control in the Senate. I agree the 6th Senate will likely go for Northam. Miller is leading I think, but where else to spend money in Tidewater?

    1. Those are the only two races in Hampton Roads. But they have other races outside of the area: Roscoe Reynolds (20th), Chuck Colgan (29th), Janet Howell (32nd), Mark Herring (33rd), Chap Petersen (34th), Dick Saslaw (35th), Toddy Puller (36th), Dave Marsden (37th), Phil Puckett (38th), and George Barker (39th). Obviously, not all of those races will be competitive but with so many of them, it serves a couple of purposes. First, it ties up the resources of the Democrats, a tactic the Republicans have used over the last few cycles. And secondly, it allows them to quickly shift resources into races that may not have been competitive at the beginning but turn that way.

      (A list of all the Senate races is here.)

    2. If I were running the Republican campaign, I’d put the 17th, 20th, and 38th in the top tier of targeted seats. They’re the three most Republican Senate districts represented by Democrats.

      In the second tier I’d put the 1st, 21st, 36th, 37th, and 39th. The open 31st is tempting, but I’m hearing Barbara Favola’s organization is really strong, even if the candidate herself is weak.

  6. I think the new open 22nd factors into their plans as well. But Democrat Burt Dodson has a lot of money on hand. That’s a turnout race, whoever gets their votes to the polls in this truly swing district wins.

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