10/31/11 financial reports – local races

Yesterday was the filing deadline for campaign finance disclosure reports for candidates on the ballot in November. The data below covers the period October 1 to October 26 and was taken from the Virginia Public Access Project, better known as VPAP. As of this writing, the information on VPAP is just the raw data from the State Board of Elections filings. Value-added data is to be available later.

Here’s what the records show for local races (note: * indicates incumbent):

Senate

1st (leans D)

John Miller (D)* – raised $459,039, on hand $189,826

Mickey Chohany (R) – raised $502,097, on hand $60,325 (includes $30,000 in loans)

If there was any doubt that the parties are both going after this seat, these latest financial reports should dispel that notion. Miller’s donations include $290,000 in cash plus $68,212 in in-kind from the DPVA. Chohany’s donations include $452,025 in in-kind from the RPV.

Last week, information was provided about Miller and his taking of a new job this summer with a company who benefited from a law which came about as the result of a bill that was co-patroned by Miller. Sources tell me that Miller, indeed, had little to do with the bill other than being a co-patron; however, this is the kind of thing that legislators need to avoid.

2nd (solid D)

Mamie Locke (D)* – raised $21,618, on hand $70,311

Thomas Harmon IV (R) – raised $7,194, on hand $11,411 (including $2,000 in loans)

This race, while contested, won’t be competitive. I’ll be surprised if Harmon gets 35% of the vote. OK, so maybe 35.5%, since The Daily Press endorsed Harmon.

6th (leans likely D)

Ralph Northam (D)* – raised $80,022, on hand $192,870

Ben Loyola (R) – raised $55,793, on hand $51,227 (includes $51,400 in loans)

I no longer see this race as being competitive (as in the margin being less than 10 points). Loyola has not managed to get out of his Congressional campaign mode. And he doesn’t have any money. As the result, I’ve updated my outlook on this race to likely D.

House of Delegates

21st (likely R)

Ron Villanueva (R)* – raised $99,650, on hand $69,793 (includes $5,000 in loans)

Adrianne Bennett (D) – raised $72,301, on hand $15,020

64th (leans R toss up)

Bill Barlow (D)* – raised $86,517, on hand $15,302

Richard Morris (R) – raised $254,483 on hand $9,219

Morris has become known as the “phantom candidate,” which may explain why his financial reports weren’t available last night. He’s not participating in debates nor showing up for editorial interviews. Combined with the record of Bill Barlow, I’ve updated this race to toss up.

93rd (barely leans D)

Robin Abbott (D)* – raised $140,946, on hand $51,771

Mike Watson (R) – raised $294,298, on hand $21,581 (includes $12,047 in loans)

The RPV put $259,231 in in-kind contributions in this race. And Watson picked up the Daily Press endorsement last week. Even so, it’s not just wishful thinking on my part that Abbott can still pull this out. But, admittedly, it’s getting harder.

94th (leans R)

Gary West (D) – raised $47,343, on hand $16,783

David Yancey (R) – raised $76,614, on hand $11,039

$53,269 of Yancey’s contributions came in the form of in-kind donations from the RPV, while West only received $19,039 from the DPVA.

If you want an explanation of my rankings, see this post.

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