Election aftermath

June112013VPAP991June112013VPAPAG991Before we get too far afield of Tuesday’s primary results, I think it’s important to look at what happened yesterday.

Northam wins LG nod I have to say that I’m surprised that my Senator pulled it off. (I’m anxious to get inside the numbers but that will have to wait until I have more time.) Perhaps it was the blowback from the Chopra ads or perhaps it was the Washington Post endorsement but something propelled this poorly run campaign to victory. Talk about disappointed! Everywhere I went, folks were complaining about it. Amateur hour is over, Ralph. You’re in the big leagues now. Time to get some new blood on the staff – and stop listening to those who haven’t a clue.

Herring wins AG nod This was not a surprise to me. I thought it would be close – and it was. I saw Justin Fairfax speak twice, once in March and again last week. The difference was striking. Given more time – and money – Fairfax would have pulled this off.

Winning in November For what it’s worth, if Democrats run solely on social issues in November, I think they lose. 2009 should be instructive. So-called “kitchen table” issues are a lot more important to the larger pool of voters that will show up.

Senate seats Should Northam and Herring be successful in November, there will be two Senate seats up for grabs. I’ve heard a lot of hand-wringing going on over this. Yes, hanging on to the seats will be tough. Both District 33 and District 6 are Obama/Kaine/McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli districts (although Bolling tied in with Wagner in 6, located close to her hometown). I can’t speak to those jockeying for a possible run in Herring’s district, but in the 6th, we’ve got good candidates.

85th House I don’t live anywhere near the 85th but this was a nasty, nasty race. Can y’all clean it up for the fall?

Norfolk What can I say? I was proud of Norfolk Tuesday. Not only was the turnout percentage about three times that of the statewide turnout, but they actually – finally – held an elected official accountable, with the defeat in the Commissioner of the Revenue’s race. Now Norfolk, let’s not forget that come November, OK?

Finally, my congratulations to all of those who were successful yesterday. And my thanks to all of the candidates who put themselves out there. Our system only works when people are willing to run.

Almost forgot: the maps above are from VPAP, who did an awesome job of providing election results, so much so that we crashed their servers last night 😉 More awesomeness is coming from VPAP soon. In an email yesterday, they announced that starting tomorrow, VaNews, their clipping service, “will also include relevant commentary pieces from the print edition published by the state’s major dailies.”  That means you might just see my newspaper column in there, after a two-year hiatus. Probably a good time to subscribe 🙂


13 thoughts on “Election aftermath

  1. I’m intrigued by the AG results and the map that shows the by county results. I, like you, am interested in seeing how close the numbers are in the counties, particularly in Northern Virginia. I’ll admit, I haven’t paid nearly enough attention, but I hadn’t heard rumblings about the Northam campaign- would be interested to learn more. Agree with your sentiment however- time to step up and protect the state from E.W. Jackson!

  2. Perhaps the support of the 60,000 member VEA for Ralph and Mark might have contributed to the outcome. Many e-mails, post cards, phone calls and such were made to the members encouraging them to vote for Ralph and Mark.

  3. I took a look at the numbers today. I ran the LG vote by county/city as a percentage of last November’s Democratic vote ((Obama+Kaine+House candidate)/3), basically asking myself what the turnout rate was among Democrats, real or likely. The statewide average, looking at it that way, was 7.09%. The top 10 jurisdictions were:

    Portsmouth (21.64%), Petersburg (19.38%), Northampton County (14.90%), Accomack County (14.73%), Norfolk (14.63%), Charlottesville (14.01%), Falls Church (13.52%), Mathews County (13.52%), Surry Count (13.45%), and Dinwiddie County (11.84%).

    Notice that pretty much all the 6th Senate district is there. Notice that Falls Church is the only NoVa jurisdiction that made the list. Notice that Portsmouth and Surry are also fairly close to the 6th, and both went big (67% and 74%) for Northam.

    To be fair, Arlington, Alexandria and Fairfax City all made the top 20. But the NoVa big dogs – Fairfax County, Loudoun, Prince William – were all below average. Prince William (2.86%) was in the bottom 10. Spotsylvania (2.29%) and Manassas Park (1.89%), two more NoVa jurisdictions, were the worst in the state.

    As Bill Pantele said last night on Facebook, “there’s a difference b/w general and primary, and Ralph’s people got that.” Northam turned out his base. Chopra looks like he never quite figured out where his base was. (I’d say it was actually not Northern Virginia, but metro Richmond, but turnout there was just a bit above average.)

    1. Chopra’s pushing increases in the minimum wage and “equal pay” were non-starters here in Fairfax. More people I talked to in my precinct were interested in the candidates’ relative experience. Chopra and Fairfax lose by that measure.

    1. I was pretty sure that Scott Taylor was going to pull that one off. Cutting through all the noise – especially from those two PACs that were set up in the waning days of the race – was a problem, though. If they had gotten out earlier, it might have made a difference but I think they waited too late.

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