With the election just 28 days away, two polls were released this morning showing Democratic candidates Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam leading their Republican opponents, while the race for AG remains a toss up.
Christopher Newport University’s Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy was up first. Today’s release (pdf) is the first of two parts, with the second coming tomorrow. The poll shows McAuliffe up 47% to 38% over Republican gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli, with Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis at 8%. (All numbers are of likely voters.) Interesting to me was that Cuccinelli is leading in Hampton Roads by 6 points. This is also the region where Sarvis gets the most support: 13%.
Northam leads Republican LG candidate E. W. Jackson 48% to 37%, with 16% of the voters undecided. With both candidates from Hampton Roads, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that the contest here is a statistical tie: Northam leads 45% to 43%. Gotta love that blank box showing up under partisan support: Jackson gets 0% Democratic support.
The AG’s race shows Democrat Mark Herring ahead of Republican Mark Obenshain 45% to 42%, which is within the poll’s +/-3.1% margin of error. Obenshain leads in Hampton Roads by 14 points.
Perhaps tomorrow’s release will include the percentage of voters from each region. I’d also like to know the MOE for the regional information.
Roanoke College released its results a little later. The questionnaire (pdf) shows McAuliffe up 40% to 34%, which RC calls a “slim lead,” with Sarvis garnering 8%. The crosstabs (pdf) show a whopping 45% to 25% lead for McAuliffe in the “Tidewater” region (after all these years, you’d think they would know our name). Tidewater respondents make up 24% of the poll.
The poll has a MOE of +/- 3%.
Northam leads Jackson 39% to 35%. Twenty-six percent are undecided. Obenshain leads Herring 38% to 35%, also with 26% undecided. One percent of the voters in each race offered no answer. Crosstabs for these two races was not provided.
(I was reminded on Twitter that RC’s polling was way off in 2012. )
Polls are, of course, just a snapshot. Real Clear Politics shows all of the polling in the gubernatorial race and calculates an average 6.2% lead for McAuliffe.
Updated for clarity on MOE 11:00am same day.