Poll: Lewis “best-positioned” candidate in the 6th

Myers Research & Strategic Services released a poll today (pdf) in covering Democratic candidates in the 6th Senate district. Of the three candidates, pollster Andrew Myers says that Del. Lynwood Lewis “is the best-positioned candidate to keep this seat in the Democratic column.”

Key to Lewis’ edge here is his lead in the toughest part of this district – the Eastern Shore. There, despite this portion of the electorate’s net 21-point Republican leaning, Lewis actually
begins this contest with a +7-point edge, 51 to 44 percent, while Miller trails by -20 points, 32 to 52 percent and McClellan trails by a similar -23 point margin, 31 to 53 percent.

LewisPoll111313With the Republican candidate as yet unknown, Myers tested the three Democrats against a generic Republican. Only Lewis led, with former Del. Paula Miller tied and newcomer Andria McClellan back 10 points.

The poll of 400 likely special election voters was conducted November 11-12, 2013 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. The poll was commissioned by the Lewis campaign.  Included on Myers client list is LG-elect Ralph Northam and the Democratic Party of Virginia.

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11 thoughts on “Poll: Lewis “best-positioned” candidate in the 6th

  1. Vivian, these are interesting numbers. Where are your crosstabs? 58% of the voters are in Norfolk. Of the 400 who responded what percent came from the Shore? Lynwood would have a significant advantage in a poll if the respondents were mostly from a candidate loyal area.

  2. One more thing, in a Special Election I think a Democrat can pick up votes in Norfolk, not so much on the Eastern Shore and in Mathews. We need someone like Ralph Northam as the Democratic Nominee, and that is Lynwood Lewis.

  3. This is the same professional polling organization that Ralph Northam used in his successful LG run. Don’t shoot the messenger because you don’t like the results.

    Bill Clinton calls it arithmetic. I call it political common sense.

    Win Norfolk and the Shore – the Lewis resume and history, we hold the seat. That scenario, along with a draw in Mathews, provided Northam 65% of the vote in the district last week.

    Win Norfolk but getting crushed in Mathews and on the Shore (exactly what this poll concludes will happen) provides extreme jeopardy to holding the seat. That scenario provided McAuliffe with 52% of the vote in the district against a extremest republican opponent. We don’t know if the GOP will provide a more traditional conservative sort of Republican as our opponent, I would be my last dollar that Bolling just might have won the district last week..

    I like Paula and Andria very much. I like Ralph Northam breaking ties for a Democratic Senate majority far more.

  4. I wonder if they asked how they knew of the candidates and it would have been nice to see some methodology. I don’t see how Andria can have that level of name ID when Lewis has just over 50%. Also I really don’t get how you can poll on a special election where a date has not even been set yet though at the same time, a 400 voter sample might represent 1/10 or 1/20 people who are going to show up to vote.

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