Lynwood Lewis leads Wayne Coleman by just 22 votes after yesterday’s special election in the 6th Senate. While I said on the radio last week that I expected a close race, I didn’t expect it to be this close. In fact, my Election-eve calculations had Lewis winning 56% – 44%. Obviously, I need to spend some time trying to figure out what happened.
The big takeway, as I compare my estimates to the results, is that turnout was much, much higher than I thought it would be. I figured just over 10%, but it ended up being almost 20%. And while I accounted for the differences between turnout in the various localities, I was surprised by the lack of turnout in Norfolk.
If the outcome holds, you can best believe Lewis will have a huge target on his back in 2015.
In the meantime, keep those recount rules handy.