Nov 15: First look Hampton Roads

Following up on my previous post, I’ve taken a first look at the General Assembly elections in Hampton Roads. HamptonRoadsMapBelow is an overview. More details on each contest will come in future posts.

House of Delegates – Projected: 8D, 12R

By my count (and I hope I haven’t left anyone out), Hampton Roads has twenty members in the House of Delegates. Twelve of the seats (60%) will be uncontested in November.  In three of the eight contested races, major party candidates (2 of three are incumbents) face only independent challengers; in all three – 81st, 95th, 96th – I expect the major party candidate to win.

That leaves us with five other races, four of which could be competitive. At this time, though, the current projection matches the current representation, even though there will be new representatives in the 79th, 82nd and 95th. That’s what partisan redistricting gets us, folks.

HRHouse062915
Italics = incumbent

Senate – Projected: 5D, 4R

As in the House, I’m not projecting any change at this time in the makeup of the Hampton Roads’ Senate delegation, again the result of redistricting. Here, though, we at least have more contests: five of the nine seats. In all five, we have only major party candidates. At least two of these contests look like they will be competitive and could very well be the races that decide which party controls the upper chamber of the legislature.

HRSenate062915
Italics = incumbent

After my previous post, someone mentioned that it appeared that I only considered fundraising. As important as fundraising is to the picture, it’s not the only criteria – and not even the most important one, in some cases – when I’m looking at these contests. I’ll try to do a better job of explaining my reasoning as I look at the individual contests.

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3 thoughts on “Nov 15: First look Hampton Roads

  1. Outstanding presentation. I believe districts 82 and 100 are likely republican more then a lean. I also would rank Colgans vacant seat in the Senate as a toss-up. Low turnout and apathy could well abound in that district even more then normal considering what I read of the primary

    1. I have 82 as a lean right now because it lacks an incumbent. For the 100th, the anemic fundraising by the incumbent is an issue. In both of these – and all Hampton Roads districts – I plan to do an individual post on them.

      Senate district 29 (Colgan) is definitely a lean D. The elections history shows the demographics of the district, and it was made even more Democratic after the last redistricting.

  2. I agree. it will take the perfect storm to win in the 29th for a Republicans. Looking at VPAP and a few other sources this race interests me.

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