Following up on my previous post, I’ve taken a first look at the General Assembly elections in Hampton Roads. Below is an overview. More details on each contest will come in future posts.
House of Delegates – Projected: 8D, 12R
By my count (and I hope I haven’t left anyone out), Hampton Roads has twenty members in the House of Delegates. Twelve of the seats (60%) will be uncontested in November. In three of the eight contested races, major party candidates (2 of three are incumbents) face only independent challengers; in all three – 81st, 95th, 96th – I expect the major party candidate to win.
That leaves us with five other races, four of which could be competitive. At this time, though, the current projection matches the current representation, even though there will be new representatives in the 79th, 82nd and 95th. That’s what partisan redistricting gets us, folks.
Senate – Projected: 5D, 4R
As in the House, I’m not projecting any change at this time in the makeup of the Hampton Roads’ Senate delegation, again the result of redistricting. Here, though, we at least have more contests: five of the nine seats. In all five, we have only major party candidates. At least two of these contests look like they will be competitive and could very well be the races that decide which party controls the upper chamber of the legislature.
After my previous post, someone mentioned that it appeared that I only considered fundraising. As important as fundraising is to the picture, it’s not the only criteria – and not even the most important one, in some cases – when I’m looking at these contests. I’ll try to do a better job of explaining my reasoning as I look at the individual contests.