House of Delegates District 93 encompasses parts of the cities of Newport News and Williamsburg and the counties of James City and York. The inhabitants of the district are 65% white, 25% black, 5% Asian, and 5% other races.
HD 93 looks like a competitive district because it has changed hands in each of the last three elections:
- 2009 – Democrat Robin Abbott defeated long-time Republican incumbent Phil Hamilton
- 2011 – Republican Mike Watson defeated Abbott
- 2013 – Democrat Monty Mason defeated Watson
The 2011 contest occurred after redistricting, in which the district became more Republican. As I’ve mentioned previously, this is based on the vote total for McDonnell in 2009, which I consider suspect. Take a look at the statewide party performance in the elections since (click to enlarge). In every case, the Democratic candidate has defeated the Republican candidate by more than 10 points, meaning none of these contests would be considered competitive. It’s also worth noting that the Democratic candidate won with more than 50% of the vote, even if the contest was a three-way. Each of the Democratic candidate’s share of the vote in this district exceeded his statewide tally.
On party performance alone, this race should be listed as Likely Democratic, which is where I have it. This positioning is further supported by Mason’s activity as a representative. I don’t live in the district but I’m quite aware of his constituent outreach and services. His is a model that many successful pols undertake and usually with good results. It is often what allows a pol to stay in office long after the demographics of the district have changed.
Republicans are putting resources into this race. I don’t see how it affects the outcome.