Live: LG Bloggers Day – Boyd Marcus

Topic is campaigns

Blogging is a new phenomenon for him. Ran his first campaign in 1980. Ran his first campaign for governor in 1989. Has handled 7 statewide campaign battles in VA – one 5, lost 2. (Both losses – Jim Miller)

Most campaigns are decided by the demographics of the district. The second most important thing is money and the candidate. Third thing is when there is a wave coming, you better be prepared. What happened in November was a wave.

Allen race and his loss has affected the Republican psyche in the General Assembly, which is why there is such a push to get a transportation bill done, even though the Webb/Allen race had nothing to do with transportation. Allen, at best, was going to get 52%/53% of the vote – assuming Webb ran out of money.

This year, there are a few seats up for grabs, particularly if there are retirements. The big question is how much the governor will do in recruiting candidates and giving money.

There is a clear way for the Democrats to take control of the Senate: if they run strong candidates where the leadership of the Senate is, it will attract some independents to also run, giving the race to the Democrats. (He doesn’t think the Ds will do this.)

If not, will go after the three seats in NoVa, Rerras and Quayle.

On the House side, doesn’t see any changes at all.

NoVA demographic changes – need to compare Bolling/McDonald numbers to Byrne/Deeds numbers in order to try to determine the base.

Specific questions about Norfolk races – thinks Paula Miller is safe and so is Nick Rerras.

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6 thoughts on “Live: LG Bloggers Day – Boyd Marcus

  1. Yeah, has anyone looked at Carlos del Toro who is running against Mark Cole in the 88th. Mr. del Toro is a retired Navy Commander, a former White House fellow, a member of the prestigious Council of Foreign Affairs, and owns a technology business in Stafford County. His story is the American Dream come true.

  2. MB – Boyd Marcus’ theory is all about the demographics. I’m going to extrapolate a little here because he didn’t get into specifics but if you recall, a number of members of the Republican Senate leadership can be classified as moderates. Running a strong D candidate against, say, Ken Stolle, would open the door for a less moderate R to run as a independent. That R would siphon off votes from the moderate R, giving the race to the D.

    asmith – again, it’s mostly in the demographics. The districts are majority R or majority D districts. The other piece is voter turnout. This is a non-federal election year so don’t expect the federal voters to participate.

  3. The demographic issue makes some sense. But if you look at the Byrne/Bolling or Deeds/McDonnell races then the Dems have a very good shot at picking up seats, though not enough for control. I think NLS has talked about many of these districts, but it comes down to candidate strength, money, and GOTV.

  4. NLS raised at the meeting a question about Webb/Allen numbers, which I think is the basis for some of his analysis. Marcus said those figures are inappropriate because of this not being a federal election year. That’s why he said your best source of the base vote was looking at Byrne/Bolling and Deeds/McDonnell.

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